Demographic Features

1.5.1 Population Size, Composition and Distribution

This section present information pertaining the County in tabular form containing population data as per the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census Report as the base year (2019 KPHCR), current estimates and projections for both mid (2025) and end (2027) of the plan period, segregated by sex.

According to the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census, Kiambu County population stood at 2,417,735 which is projected to be 2,602,250 by the year 2022. The population is further projected to reach 2,754,140 and 2,854,954 by the end of year 2025 and 2027 respectively.

Figure 3: County Population Age Structure

Source: KNBS

A population pyramid in the figure 3 displays the age-sex structure of the population in Kiambu County. The figure shows that majority of the population in the county are the youth at 78 percent. The old dependency ratio stood at 5.5 percent while child dependency ratio is at 47.2 percent. The total dependency ratio in the county is 52.6 percent. The labour force population in the county stood at 65.5 percent.

 

Table 4: County Population Age Structure

Source: KNBS

Table 5: Population Projections (by Sub-County and Sex)

Source: KNBS

From the table 4, Kiambu County has a population of 2,417,735 persons as per the 2019 KPHC out of which 1,187,146 are males, 1,230, 454 are Females and 135 are intersex. The female population in the County is higher than that of male by 43,308 persons. Ruiru and Juja sub counties have the highest population of 371,111 and 300,948 persons while Gatundu North and South sub counties have the least population of 109,870 and 122,103 persons respectively. Ruiru Sub County has the highest disparities by sex by 9,197 persons while Limuru sub county has the least by 50 persons.

 

Table 6: Population Projections by Age Cohort

Source: KNBS

Out of a population of 2,417,600 as per the 2019 KPHC, the age cohort of 0-4 years have the highest population with 278,141 persons while the age cohort of 75-79 years have the least with 13,520 persons. The female population is higher in all age cohorts except with the age cohort of 10-14, 40-44, 45-49 and 50-54. The population is expected to increase across all age cohorts in the year 2022, 2025 and in the 2027.

 

Table 7: Population Projections by Urban Area

Source: KNBS

The 2019 Population and Housing Census indicate that the county had an urban population of 1,706,003 in 2019 and is projected to be 1,836,147, 1,943,365 and 1,995,539 in the year 2022, 2025 and 2027 respectively. Ruiru sub county has the highest urban population of 490,088 persons followed by Kikuyu and Thika sub counties with a population of 323,663 and 251,389 persons respectively. Kijabe and Ngewa has the least urban population with 2,024 and 2,452 persons respectively. This high population in urban centers can be attributed to the proximity of the county to Nairobi as most of the people work in Nairobi and reside in the county. In addition, industrial development in some sub counties like Thika West and Ruiru attract more Labour force. In these areas, urban planning should be effectively undertaken to avoid strain on the physical amenities from growth of informal settlements. In addition, community policing should be enhanced to reduce insecurity. Also, more infrastructural facilities like transport network, housing, schools and health centers should be built.

 

1.5.2 Population Density and Distribution

Table 8: Population distribution and density by Sub-County

Population distribution and density by Sub-County
Sub County census (2019) 2022 (projection) projection (2025) projection (2027)
Area (KM2) Population Density Area (KM2) Population Density Area (KM2) Population Density Area (KM2) Population Density
Gatundu North 285.9 109,870 384 285.9 118,264 414 285.9 125,157 438 285.9 129,739 454
Gatundu South 193.6 122,103 631 193.6 131,434 679 193.6 139,092 718 193.6 144,184 745
Githunguri 174.4 165,232 947 174.4 177,866 1,020 174.4 188,222 1,079 174.4 195,112 1,119
Juja 342.0 300,948 880 342 323,927 947 342 342,822 1,002 342 355,371 1,039
Kabete 60.7 199,653 3,289 60.7 214,881 3,540 60.7 227,433 3,747 60.7 235,758 3,884
Kiambaa 91.1 236,400 2,595 91.1 254,430 2,793 91.1 269,293 2,956 91.1 279,150 3,064
Kiambu 98.3 145,903 1,484 98.3 156,978 1,597 98.3 166,204 1,691 98.3 172,288 1,753
Kikuyu 172.9 187,122 1,082 172.9 201,384 1,165 172.9 213,158 1,233 172.9 220,961 1,278
Lari 432.3 135,303 313 432.3 145,649 337 432.3 154,129 357 432.3 159,771 370
Limuru 285.1 159,314 559 285.1 171,517 602 285.1 181,481 637 285.1 188,124 660
Ruiru 201.1 371,111 1,845 201.1 399,402 1,986 201.1 422,747 2,102 201.1 438,222 2,179
Thika 201.3 284,776 1,415 201.3 306,517 3,438 201.3 324,400 3,883 201.3 336,274 4,212
Total 2,538.7 2,417,735 952 2538.7 2,602,250 1,025 2,538.7 2,754,139 1,085 2,538.7 2,854,954 1,125

Source: KNBS

Kiambu county had a population density of 952 persons per square kilometer in 2019. The population density was projected at 1025, 1085 and 1125 persons per square kilometer in the year 2022, 2025 and 2027 respectively. Kabete sub county has the highest population density of 3,289 in 2019 followed closely by Kiambaa and Ruiru Sub counties with a population density of 2,595 and 1,845 persons respectively. Lari and Gatundu North Sub counties had the least population density of 313 and 384 persons respectively in 2019.

1.5.3 Population Projection by Broad Age Groups

Table 9: Population Projections by Broad Age Groups

population projections by broad age group
Age Group census (2019) 2022 (projection) projection (2025) projection (2027)
M F Total M F Total M F Total M F Total
Infant population (< 1Year) 29,608 29,445 59,053 33,362 33,178 66,540 37,592 37,384 74,976 42,358 42,124 84,482
Under 5 Population 140,129 138,012 278,141 153,505 154,474 307,979 155,120 155,178 310,298 155,478 155,509 310,987
Pre-School (3-5 Years) 78,411 77,016 155,427 90,633 91,421 182,055 92,288 93,114 185,403 92,679 93,347 186,026
Primary School (6-13 Years) 187,743 188,800 376,543 226,945 229,148 456,093 236,626 239,767 476,393 239,963 243,396 483,359
Secondary School (14-17Years) 83,923 86,691 170,614 102,314 102,751 205,065 107,808 109,637 217,445 111,459 113,410 224,869
Youth (15-29 Years) 347,591 386,384 733,975 395,052 386,699 781,751 392,635 390,171 782,806 392,937 393,815 786,752
Women of Reproductive Age (15-49 Years) 249,744 249,744 664,015 664,015 769,973 769,973 798,403 798,403
Economically active population (15-64 Years) 695,868 808,607 1,504,475 811,050 811,050 1,622,100 869,679 880,212 1,749,891 910,851 923,509 1,834,360
Aged(65+) 27,149 48,888 76,037 44,532 51,484 96,016 43,045 54,309 97,354 44,909 59,512 104,421

Source: KNBS

Under 1 year

The population of under 1 year age group was 59,053 in 2019 and was projected at 66,540 in 2022 and 84,482 at the end of the plan period(2027).

Labour Force Projections

The population in the Labour force (those aged 15-64 years) is expected to increase by 13 percent from 1,622,100 persons in the beginning of the plan period 2022 to 1,834,360 person at the end of the plan period the year 2027.

1.5.4 Population of Persons with Disability

Table 10: Population of Persons with Disability by Type, Age and Sex

Source: KNBS

 

The population of people with disability in the county according to the KPHC 2019 was 124,474 out of which 51,042 were males and 73,342 were females. Mobility disability had the highest number of persons followed by visual disability at 32,634 persons. Hearing disability had the least number with 9,926 persons. The population between 0-14 had the highest number of people with disability at 69,530 followed by population above 50+ years with 30,696 persons. The Kiambu County CIDP 2023-2027 shall seeks to address disparities in service provisions and also ensure that services that are available to other citizens are also available to PWDs in pursuance of article 19 (b) of the constitution. In specific, the county will continue to establish more ECDEs classes and TVETS that can accommodate more persons with disability in all areas.

1.5.5 Demographic Dividend

Demographic dividend refers to the potential accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country’s mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. This means that if fewer births are recorded each year in a country, then the young dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working age population. As a result, opportunities are created for economic growth since fewer resources are needed to meet the needs of this young age¬†group more so if the right social and economic policies are developed and investments made.

It is evident in Kenya that demographic transition is taking place at both national and county level, with different counties at different stages of the demographic transition, thus creating a demographic window of opportunity to harness the demographic dividend. Demographic window is the period when the population structure is such that those aged below 15 years are less than 30% of the total population and those aged 65 years and above are less than 15% of the population.

The age population structure and fertility levels in Kiambu County as shown in table 10 may enable the county to experience a demographic dividend. It is therefore imperative that the County prioritize interventions and investments in the four focus areas of the demographic dividend, namely: health and wellbeing; education and skills development; employment and entrepreneurship; and rights, governance and youth empowerment. Further, harnessing the demographic potential is anchored on minimum of five pillars or wheels: (i) Demographic Transition; (ii) Education; (iii) Health; (iv), Economic Reforms and Job Creation; and (v) Governance and Accountability. All the five policy pillars are interrelated and should be implemented concurrently in order to drive the county towards the economic prosperity that can result from the demographic potential.

Table 11: Demographic Dividend Potential

Category 2019 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Population size 2,417,601 2,555,047 2,601,133 2,647,006 2,692,482 2,737,539
Population below 15 (%) 30.9% 30.5% 30.5% 30.3% 30.1% 30.0%
Population aged 15-64 (%) 65.5% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.3% 66.4%
Population aged 65+ (%) 3.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
Dependency ratio 52.6 51.3 51.3 51.2 50.7 50.6
Fertility rate 2.7 2.64 2.62 2.60 2.58 2.56

Source: KNBS (2019) and NCPD (2022)